Kelowna, Regina, and Winnipeg top Canada’s 2026 wildfire risk rankings under new federal forecasting model
Wildfires are no longer just a seasonal environmental issue in Canada. They are increasingly becoming a housing, insurance, infrastructure, and affordability issue as well. After a record-breaking 2024 wildfire and catastrophe season that resulted in over $8.5 billion in insured losses nationwide, the insurance industry, homeowners, and policymakers alike are paying much closer attention to how wildfire exposure is evolving across the country.
At the same time, the science behind wildfire forecasting is changing rapidly. In April 2026, Natural Resources Canada significantly upgraded the Canadian Wildland Fire Information System (CWFIS), introducing a fundamentally new forecasting framework known as Seasonal Forecast 2.0. The updated system now uses CanSIPSv3 ensemble climate modelling, 6-hour gridded weather inputs, expanded spatial coverage, probabilistic forecasting, and new “Extreme Fire Weather Days” forecasting layers to better estimate periods of elevated wildfire danger.
In response to these changes, our team at MyChoice, a leading insurtech company in Canada, completely redesigned our annual wildfire study methodology for 2026.
How We Calculated the 2026 Wildfire Risk Index
The 2026 edition of the study uses a completely new methodology based on Natural Resources Canada’s upgraded CWFIS Seasonal Forecast 2.0 system, introduced in April 2026. Because the underlying government forecasting model changed this year, the 2026 rankings are not directly comparable to previous editions of the study.
To calculate the Wildfire Risk Index, MyChoice combined two equally weighted components:
Key Findings from the Study
- Kelowna, BC ranked as Canada’s highest overall wildfire-risk city in 2026, posting a Wildfire Risk Index score of 6.8/10. While Prairie cities recorded more severe forecast fire weather conditions, Kelowna’s extremely high community exposure, driven by dense wildland-urban interface (WUI) development, surrounding forest fuel, and historical wildfire activity, pushed it to the top overall.
- Prairie cities are forecast to experience Canada’s most severe fire-weather conditions this summer. Regina (9.8/10) and Winnipeg (9.6/10) recorded the country’s highest Forecast Fire Weather Severity scores, followed by Medicine Hat, Brooks, Lethbridge, and Saskatoon, reflecting projected drought, heat, and elevated grassfire conditions across the Prairies during the 2026 fire season.
- Victoria and Vancouver posted some of the highest Extreme Fire Weather Day forecasts in Canada. Victoria is forecast to experience 11 Extreme Fire Weather Days during its August peak, the highest among all cities analyzed, while Vancouver followed closely with 10.5 projected extreme days despite more moderate overall wildfire severity scores.
- Kamloops, Fort McMurray, Canmore, and Banff ranked among Canada’s most structurally exposed wildfire communities. These cities scored extremely high on community exposure due to their dense forest adjacency, difficult evacuation dynamics, historical wildfire proximity, and high concentration of homes located within the WUI.
- Fort McMurray stood out as one of the study’s biggest contrasts between weather severity and exposure. Although CanSIPSv3 projects relatively low wildfire-weather severity for Fort McMurray in 2026, the city still ranked among Canada’s highest-risk communities because of its extreme structural exposure and history of catastrophic wildfire losses.
- Ontario communities remained moderate overall, but Northern Ontario exposure continues to stand out. Kenora ranked as Ontario’s highest wildfire-risk city at 4.9/10, while Timmins, Sudbury, Gravenhurst, and Sault Ste. Marie also recorded elevated exposure scores due to forest proximity, remoteness, and wildfire accessibility challenges.
- The 2026 rankings reveal two very different wildfire patterns emerging across Canada. Prairie cities are facing the country’s most severe forecast fire-weather conditions this season, while many British Columbia and Alberta communities continue to rank highly because of long-term structural exposure tied to forest-adjacent development and WUI expansion.
“Wildfire risk is increasingly becoming a structural issue rather than simply a seasonal one,” said Aren Mirzaian, CEO and co-founder of MyChoice. “What this year’s study really shows is that atmospheric fire weather is only part of the equation. Communities with dense development near forested areas, expensive housing stock, and limited evacuation flexibility may remain vulnerable even during seasons where forecast fire conditions appear moderate.”
“Homeowners should think proactively about mitigation. FireSmart-style home hardening, clearing combustible vegetation, maintaining defensible space around structures, and reviewing insurance coverage limits can make a meaningful difference. We’re entering an era where wildfire resilience will increasingly shape both affordability and insurability across parts of Canada.”
Why Wildfire Exposure Matters for Homeowners
Wildfire risk is increasingly becoming a financial issue for homeowners, even in communities where flames never directly reach residential properties.
Rebuilding costs continue to rise
Post-disaster rebuilding costs frequently exceed pre-fire property values due to:
- labour shortages,
- material inflation,
- contractor demand surges,
- and infrastructure disruption.
In high-value communities like Canmore and Kelowna, rebuilding costs after a catastrophic event can escalate rapidly, particularly when large portions of the local housing stock are damaged simultaneously.
Smoke exposure is becoming a national issue
Wildfire smoke is no longer confined to Western Canada.
Communities such as Vancouver, Victoria, Barrie, and Sudbury have increasingly experienced prolonged smoke exposure from distant fires in recent years. According to Health Canada, there is no known safe level of exposure for some wildfire smoke pollutants, and even low-level smoke events can negatively impact respiratory health.
Insurance affordability pressures are growing
Our previous joint study with Wahi found that home insurance costs are already rising significantly in several wildfire-prone Canadian communities, with insurance payments accounting for as much as 19% of monthly mortgage costs in some markets.
As wildfire exposure continues to increase, homeowners in high-risk communities may face:
- rising premiums,
- higher deductibles,
- stricter underwriting,
- or reduced coverage availability over time.
In wildfire-exposed regions such as Kelowna, Kamloops, Fort McMurray, and parts of Northern Ontario, insurance affordability is increasingly becoming part of the overall cost of homeownership, not just a background expense.
Evacuation and displacement risks are increasing
Wildfire risk also extends beyond direct property damage.
Mandatory evacuations can result in:
- weeks of displacement,
- hotel and rental expenses,
- lost income,
- transportation disruption,
- and long-term housing instability.
Communities with constrained evacuation infrastructure, particularly remote Northern or mountain communities, may face compounding risks during fast-moving wildfire events.
Global Climate Signals Continue to Raise Concern
The broader climate backdrop surrounding the 2026 wildfire season also remains concerning.
Global ocean temperatures remain near record highs, with NOAA and Copernicus reporting some of the warmest sea-surface temperatures ever recorded entering 2026. Researchers increasingly believe these oceanic conditions may influence atmospheric blocking patterns, drought persistence, and extreme heat events across North America.
Natural Resources Canada itself notes that seasonal wildfire forecasting should be interpreted alongside broader teleconnection patterns such as:
- ENSO,
- the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO),
- and large-scale drought indicators.
While these climate patterns do not directly determine whether a specific city will experience wildfire activity, they contribute to the broader environmental conditions that can increase the likelihood of severe fire-weather episodes.
Raw Data:
| City | Forecast Fire Weather Severity (0–10) | Community Exposure (0–10) | Wildfire Risk Index (0–10) | Extreme Fire Weather Days (Peak Month) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelowna, BC | 5.8 | 7.8 | 6.8 | 7.5 |
| Regina, SK | 9.8 | 1.8 | 5.8 | 3.0 |
| Winnipeg, MB | 9.6 | 2.0 | 5.8 | 5.0 |
| Kamloops, BC | 3.1 | 7.8 | 5.5 | 6.0 |
| Medicine Hat, AB | 8.7 | 2.0 | 5.3 | 2.5 |
| Brooks, AB | 7.5 | 2.9 | 5.2 | 3.0 |
| Victoria, BC | 5.8 | 4.6 | 5.2 | 11.0 |
| Lethbridge, AB | 7.6 | 2.2 | 4.9 | 3.0 |
| Kenora, ON | 3.6 | 6.2 | 4.9 | 4.5 |
| Fort McMurray, AB | 1.0 | 8.6 | 4.8 | 0.0 |
| Saskatoon, SK | 7.2 | 1.9 | 4.5 | 2.0 |
| Vancouver, BC | 4.8 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 10.5 |
| Prince George, BC | 2.3 | 6.2 | 4.2 | 6.5 |
| Canmore, AB | 0.8 | 7.6 | 4.2 | 1.5 |
| Banff, AB | 0.8 | 7.3 | 4.0 | 1.5 |
| Timmins, ON | 1.5 | 6.1 | 3.8 | 3.0 |
| Gravenhurst, ON | 1.5 | 5.3 | 3.4 | 4.0 |
| Sudbury, ON | 1.6 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 4.0 |
| Sault Ste. Marie, ON | 1.7 | 4.4 | 3.1 | 4.5 |
| Edmonton, AB | 2.3 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 1.5 |
| Grande Prairie, AB | 1.2 | 4.7 | 3.0 | 0.0 |
| Barrie, ON | 1.5 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 4.0 |
| Red Deer, AB | 2.1 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 2.0 |
| Calgary, AB | 1.8 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 1.5 |