Lower resale values don’t necessarily translate to lower rebuilding costs. A decrease in a home’s value also doesn’t mean the cost or likelihood of an insurance claim has gone down. As a result, Ontario home values and insurance rates can move in opposite directions.
This guide uses the 2025 MyChoice study as a dated historical dataset and reviews CREA’s MLS Home Price Index reference material, Insurance Bureau of Canada’s home-rate guide and IBC’s home-coverage guide.
Methodology
Our analysis matched thousands of quotes from insurance price-comparison service MyChoice with housing prices attributed to CREA. Quotes were obtained for a typical homeowner, defined as a 35-year-old with a claims-free insurance history, insuring a three- or four-bedroom house with a replacement value of $1 million that is semi- or fully detached and between 2,000 and 2,500 square feet. The profile also used a $1,000 deductible, $1 million in liability coverage, Enhanced Water Protection, monitored alarms and a fire extinguisher.
Will Falling Home Prices Lower Home Insurance Premiums in Ontario?
Resale prices reflect the market value of the house and land. Insurance rates reflect the risks being insured and potential claim costs. A decrease in real estate market value does not mean insurance companies have to reduce their rates.
Factors affecting home insurance include rebuilding costs, contents, liability, location, coverage amount, deductibles, claims history and home maintenance.
The 2025 dataset includes rows in which home prices and insurance premiums moved in opposite directions. However, it does not show that falling home prices caused premiums to increase. This historical dataset is not a quote or forecast for 2026.
The home insurance premiums below are based on MyChoice quote data.
IBC says replacement value can differ from market value and a municipality’s assessment. The factors that determine the cost of property insurance may not decrease when home prices do.
Insurers also consider neighbourhood claim history, severe-weather risk, fire-protection capabilities and the characteristics of the home when pricing policies.
Read More: Learn How Home Value Relates to Home Insurance Cost
If Home Values Keep Falling, Will Insurance Prices Eventually Ease?
Insurance rates may be reduced if expected insured losses decrease, rebuilding costs fall, market competition increases or the selected coverage changes.
Insurance may not become less expensive simply because home values have fallen. There is no promised delay between changes in the housing market and changes in insurance prices.
Read More: See Why Home Insurance Can Increase at Renewal
How to Review Your Renewal
- Compare the dwelling limit, contents, liability, water endorsements, deductibles and discounts with last year’s declaration.
- Ask your insurer or broker whether the premium changed because of underlying rates or changes to your coverage, limits, property or claims information.
- Make sure the rebuilding information reflects the home’s size, number of storeys, construction, roof, heating, outbuildings and renovations. Don’t use market value as a substitute for a rebuilding estimate.
- Shop around, but compare similar policies. A policy that costs less because it removes water coverage, changes the settlement terms or raises the deductible beyond what you can afford may not be a saving.
Read More: Compare Home Insurance in Ontario
Full dataset:
| Published location | Published 2025 home price | Home price change | 2025 average annual premium | Premium change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto | $1,140,000 | -7.6% | $1,814 | +8.1% |
| Ottawa | $768,000 | -0.9% | $1,145 | +14.3% |
| Hamilton | $779,000 | -5.9% | $1,235 | +2.8% |
| Mississauga | $1,215,000 | -8.3% | $1,502 | +11.9% |
| Thunder Bay | $344,950 | +4.4% | $2,190 | +26.4% |
| North Bay | $450,000 | +4.3% | $1,657 | +22.6% |
| Burlington | $779,000 | -5.9% | $1,272 | +16.0% |
| London | $620,000 | -3.1% | $1,606 | +12.2% |
| Windsor | $505,000 | -6.5% | $1,422 | +11.7% |
| St. Catharines | $609,000 | -6.2% | $1,436 | +11.2% |
| Sudbury | $465,000 | +2.2% | $1,750 | +8.6% |
| Brampton | $1,140,000 | -7.6% | $1,099 | +6.4% |
| Sarnia | $450,500 | -4.1% | $1,368 | +5.5% |
| Kingston | $590,000 | -1.7% | $1,132 | +4.0% |
| Guelph | $930,000 | -7.0% | $1,319 | +3.8% |
| Brantford | $535,000 | -11.2% | $1,386 | +2.2% |
| Barrie | $1,140,000 | -7.6% | $1,700 | -2.1% |
| Niagara Falls | $609,000 | -6.2% | $1,329 | -2.7% |
| Sault Ste. Marie | $305,022 | -3.1% | $1,733 | +10.9% |
Source: MyChoice, CREA